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Student Number 993302015
Author Hui-hsuan Kao(高潓璇)
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 620 times. Download 322 times.
Department Executive Master of Civil Engineering
Year 2010
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title Construction Project Financial Evaluation of Multiple Criteria
Decision Making—Using the China Airlines Park BOT
Development Projects at the Taoyuan International Airport as
an example
Date of Defense 2011-07-16
Page Count 134
Keyword
  • ANP second network procedural method
  • BOT
  • project finance
  • project life cycle
  • Abstract This study takes the China Airlines Park BOT (Build, Operate and Transfer) development project at the Taoyuan International Airport as an example and an Analytical Network Process (ANP) is used to assess the multi-criteria decision-making method. Aimed at the feasible initial study stage of the project life cycle, this study conducted an assessment of the criteria for project financing and established a final decision assessment model.
     
    To promote participation, the BOT model, in addition to reducing the financial burden on the government, combines adequate civil financial and advanced management concepts and techniques to both conduct and promote regional and peripheral industrial development. It also enhances employment opportunities and public interest to achieve a winning situation for the public, the business sector and the government. Among the complex elements of assessment, the most critical and influential decision factor is the financial assessment that is closely related to the overall development project and has significant impact on the success or failure of each stage of the project life cycle. In the early stages of project development, civil institutions, in addition to presentation of the concept in writing and studying the feasibility report for the initial stage in accordance with the provisions of the Procurement Act, Promotion of Participation Act, etc., also focus on the main financial analysis of the project. From the customized planning of the entire project, the change in the interest and exchange rates, inflation, cash flow forecasts, operating recovery period, up to the final sensitivity analysis and other criteria, all affect the final success or failure of the project.
      
    In the ANP multi-criteria decision-making assessment, there are four basic models: simple type, feedback type, second-order network model and complex network model. The second-order network procedural method was used in this study and happened to be in line with the decision making needs for the project’s financial assessment of civil institutions to participate in the public construction. The biggest difference between ANP and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) lies in AHP’s assumption that all assessment criteria are independent, while ANP in the assessment criteria sets the dimensions as having internal or external dependencies. The results of the ANP method used to conduct the decision-making analysis are more in line with the needs of comprehensive assessment and logical thinking. Due to their more diversified and demanding nature, the project financial assessment was developed in accordance with the Promote Participation Act and involved the public interest. Therefore, the overall planning, cost of the project development, and financial investment were more holistic and did not just consider single interests independently. This study refers to the literature on the application of ANP and promotes the participation project-related reports that have been implemented in the country. The four main criteria structure (benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks) of the second-order network procedural method of the ANP was adopted for the study analysis.
      Although this study used the case of BOT as an example, the results have shown that this analytical model, according to its attributes and characteristics, can be used in other types of development projects. Due to its wide range of coverage and greater reliability, it can also provide reference for other studies, and it is expected to enhance future studies and in-depth research.
    Table of Content 摘要I
    ABSTRACTII
    誌 謝IV
    目錄V
    圖目錄VII
    表目錄VIII
    第一章 緒論1
    1.1 研究背景與動機1
    1.2 研究目的1
    1.3 研究範圍與假設1
    1.4 論文章節與架構2
    第二章 文獻回顧5
    2.1營建工程專案全生命週期概述5
    2.1.1專案管理名詞定義8
    2.1.2專案管理概述9
    2.2專案成本與財務管理概述10
    2.2.1專案財務管理之範疇11
    2.2.2財務管理目的與特性11
    2.2.3專案財務風險規劃11
    2.2.4專案成本組成架構13
    2.2.5專案成本分析16
    2.2.6專案成本管控技能17
    2.3專案財務管理技術與技能研析18
    2.3.1專案財務管理輸入與輸出18
    2.3.2財務管理分析流程20
    2.3.3專案自償率評估22
    2.3.4專案回收年限評估23
    2.3.5專案淨現值分析23
    2.3.6專案投資報酬之評估24
    2.3.7專案財務敏感度分析27
    2.3.8專案財務管理成效探討28
    2.4 ANP分析網路程序法研析29
    2.4.1 AHP與ANP基本概念29
    2.4.2 ANP分析網路模式建立31
    2.4.3 ANP分析網路流程31
    第三章 研究方法33
    3.1研究設計33
    3.2研究流程33
    3. 3研究方法34
    第四章 專案財務多準則決策評估個案分析37
    4.1內涵及定義37
    4.1.1內涵37
    4.1.2定義38
    4.2個案分析39
    4.2.1量體規劃與專案財務參數設定57
    4.2.2投資經費之預估及分年資本支出計畫60
    4.2.3專案資金籌措計畫61
    4.2.4自償能力評析64
    4.2.5專案計畫淨現值評析64
    4.2.6專案投資報酬率分析64
    4.2.7專案回收年期分析65
    4.2.8專案敏感度分析65
    4.2.9專案財務方案決策68
    第五章 結論與建議69
    5.1結論69
    5.2建議70
    參考文獻71
    附錄一 問卷調查題目73
    附錄二 機會準則評估之運算97
    附錄三 成本準則評估之運算103
    附錄四 風險準則評估之運算109
    附錄五 個案分析之投資A方案115
    附錄六 個案分析之投資B方案118
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    Advisor
  • Jyh-dong Lin(林志棟)
  • Files
  • 993302015.pdf
  • approve in 1 year
    Date of Submission 2011-07-26

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