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Student Number 974304004
Author Yu-ya Kao(高又雅)
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 778 times. Download 42 times.
Department Executive Master of Industrial Economics
Year 2010
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title An Empirical Study of Small & Medium Enterprise (SME) Credit Defaults During the Subprime Financial Crisis Using Evidence from Direct Credit Guarantee Programs of Taiwan
Date of Defense 2011-04-19
Page Count 81
Keyword
  • credit default
  • credit guarantee
  • Logitic model
  • Multinomial logit model
  • SME loan
  • Abstract The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the determints of non-performance loan (NPL) of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs). The 460 lending datas from 2008 to 2009 of Director Credit Guarantee of Small and Medium Enterprises Guarantee Fund (SMEG) in Taiwan were collected for empirical analysis. The key determints we examine include not only the financial indicators, but also the non-financial indicator as well as industrial attributes. The Logitic regression model is employed in determining the key factors affecting closure of business. Moreover, the multinomiatl logit regression model is employed in estimating the factors of credit extension and credit default.
    The major empirical findings revel that the indicators including revenue and duration are significantly positive related to closure and credit default. It also suggests that the indicators including capital, gross ratio and approved amount are siginificantly negative related to closure and credit default. Futhur, it shows that firms with finance certificated by CPA and marital status of the chairman are important indicators which are significantly negative related to credit extension and default. Finally, it appears that elecronic and construction indusy are significantly positive related to closure of business. The prediction accuracy rations of Logistic model and Multinomal Logit model of the study reach more than 90% and 70%, respectively. Results of the empirical study may serve as reference for credit approving and risk control policy.
    Table of Content 中文摘要 i
    英文摘要 ii
    誌謝 iv
    目錄 v
    圖目錄 vi
    表目錄 vii
    第一章 前言 1
     第一節 研究動機 1
     第二節 研究目的 3
     第三節 研究架構及流程 3
    第二章 中小企業融資與信用保證概況 5
     第一節 中小企業概況 5
     第二節 中小企業授信 11
     第三節 中小企業信用保證基金簡介 20
    第三章 文獻回顧 32
     第一節 中小企業授信相關文獻回顧 32
     第二節 提高授信誘因及信用保證相關文獻探討 36
    第四章 實證模型及資料說明 40
     第一節 研究對象 40
     第二節 分析方法 43
     第三節 主要變數說明 45
     第四節 敘述統計說明 49
    第五章 實證結果與分析 53
     第一節 影響停業與否之Logit實證 54
     第二節 影響是否展期與逾期之Multinomial Logit實證 58
    第六章 結論及建議62
     第一節 結論62
     第二節 研究限制及未來研究方向 65
    參考文獻66
    Reference 一、中文部份
    [1]楊雅惠、蕭玄、郭文政(1993),「中小企業融資及市場行銷之研究」,經濟部及中華經濟研究院主編。
    [2]陳錦村(1998),「競爭、往來關係與銀行授信行為之研究」,Journal of Financial Studies,561-90。
    [3]葉銀華、柯承恩、蘇裕惠(2000),「中小企業財務結構與經營績效關係之研究」,中山管理評論8(2)303-323。
    [4]江惠櫻(2000),「商業銀行對企業授信決策考量因素與授信品質之關係」,靜宜大學企業管理系碩士論文。
    [5]陳家彬、賴怡涒(2001),「台灣地區銀行放款有無擔保之決定因素-Logit模型之實證分析」,管理評論,20(1),129-159。
    [6]鄭嘉鈺(2001),「中小企業信用保證基金之保證費率與銀行授信政策之研究-選擇權定價模式之應用」,銘傳大學國際企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    [7]陳家彬、賴怡洵(2003),「銀行往來關係和授信行為之研究」,經濟論文,31(3)497-539。
    [8]劉長寬(2003),「應用Logit模型於消費者擔保貸款違約行為之實證研究」,朝陽科技大學財務金融系碩士論文。
    [9]廖芯瑩(2003),「我國中小企業融資策略及經營績效關係之研究」,淡江大學會計系碩士論文。
    [10]詹益燿(2004),「信用保證機構之承保方式與風險管理」,台灣大學財務金融組碩士論文。
    [11]張鈞(2004),「中小企業信用保證基金制度之研究」,台灣大學國際企業管理組碩士論文。
    [12]陳家彬、賴怡洵、許茲盈(2004),「商業銀行關係放款之實證研究」,財務金融學刊,12(2)43-86。
    [13]鄭宗明(2005),「影響商業銀行授信決策因素之研究」,中興大學應用經濟系碩士論文。
    [14]黃台心(2005),計量經濟學,台北市;雙葉書廊。
    [15]黃博怡、劉錦添、邱哲修、蔡培榮(2006),「強化中小企業融資信用保證之研究」,行政院經濟建設委員會委託,台灣經濟研究院執行。
    [16]沈中華、黃博怡、戚樹君、葉立仁(2006),「提升金融機構對中小企業融資意願研析計畫」,經濟部中小企業處專案研究。
    [17]林修葳、陳業寧、繆文娟、柯文乾、趙家芸、陳慈昕(2007),「中小企業信用保證基金對於經濟成長之貢獻」。
    [18]周添城、黃博怡、葉立人等(2007),「運用政策性專案貸款及信用保證制度-推動產業發展之檢討」,行政院經濟建設委員會委託,實際大學執行。
    [19]李定緯(2007),「銀行對企業授信限額的決定因素之研究」,中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。
    [20]萬智傑(2007),「台灣中小企業之財務危機預警模型、信用評等與巴塞爾協定資本計提」,東吳大學企業管理系碩士論文。
    [21]經濟部統計處(2007),「製造業國內投資實況調查報告」。
    [22]李惟喬(2008),「我國銀行對中小企業放款之違約預警模式探討」,朝陽科技大學保險金融管理系碩士論文。
    [23]陳美菊(2008),「次貸風暴對全球經濟影響」,經濟研究,8,249-271。
    [24]施貴騰(2009),「銀行授信業務之台灣實證分析」,東吳大學經濟系碩士論文。
    [25]經濟部中小企業白皮書(2009)。
    [26]中小企業信用保證基金年報(2009)。
    [27]黃博怡、陳朝斌、梁連文、劉朝陽(2010),「我國中小企業政策金融機制必要性與適切性的探討」,中小企業發展季刊,17。
    [28]吳莉芬(2010),「中小企業的資金規劃與銀行融資」投影片。
    [29]中小企業信用保證基金網站。
    二、英文部分
    [1] Berger, A. N., L. F. Klapper, and G. F. Udell(1995), “Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance”, Journal of Business, 68, 351-81
    [2] Berger, A. N., L. F. Klapper, and G. F. Udell (2001), “The ability of Banks to Lend to Informationaly Opaque Small Business”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, 2127-2167.
    [3] Berger, A. N. and G. F. Udell (2002), “Small Business Credit Availability and Relationsip Lending: The Importance of Bank Organizational Structure, “The Economic Journal, 112, 32-53.
    [4] Dybvig (1983), “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance and Liquidity”, Journal of Political Economy, 91 June, 401-419.
    [5] Ennew, C. T. and M. R. Binks (1995), “Does the Banking Relationship Constrain Performance,” Journal of Small Business Finance, 4:1, 57-73.
    [6] Gertler Mark and S. Gilchrist (1991), “Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms”, MBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    [7] OECD (2006), “The SME Financing Gap, Theory and Evidence”, volume I.
    [8] Ohlson, J. A., (1980), “Financial Rations and the Probability Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.
    [9] Petersen, M. A and R. G. Rajan (1994), “The Benefits of Firm-Creditor Relationship: Evidence from Small Business Data”, Journal of Finance, 49, 3-37.
    [10] Petersen, M. A and R. G. Rajan (1997), “Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence”, Review of Financial Studies, 10, 661-692.
    [11] Schumpeter (1912), “The Theory of Economic Development”, Havard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
    [12] Stiglitz, J. E. and A. Weiss (1981), “Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information”. American Economic Review 71, 393-410.
    [13] Van Wijnhergen, S. (1983), “Credit Policy, Inflation and Growth in a Financially Repressed Economy”, Journal of Development Economics 13, 45-65.
    [14] Wooldridge, J., (2003), Introductory Econometrics-A Modern Approach, South-Western Publishing.
    Advisor
  • Jin-long Liu(劉錦龍)
  • Files
  • 974304004.pdf
  • approve in 3 years
    Date of Submission 2011-05-11

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