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Student Number 974206025
Author Jian-yi Shen(沈建儀)
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 571 times. Download 255 times.
Department Graduate Institute of Industrial Management
Year 2009
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language English
Title Determination of the selling price of the seasonal product with Bayesian updating
Date of Defense 2010-06-22
Page Count 29
Keyword
  • Bayesian method
  • Pricing update
  • Seasonal products
  • Abstract In this thesis, we consider the determination of pricing policy for a retailer that maximizes the profit from selling a given inventory of seasonal products by a fixed deadline.
    The concept of this study is based on Bitran and Mondschein (1997). Different from their concept, we set a scale variable, and use the past history of the demand during the planning horizon to update the scale variable by using Bayesian method and showing how it can be embedded in our updating model. Our aim is trying to estimate the scale variable. Finally, we embed it into optimal pricing model and find the appropriate selling price than the original selling price during each sales period, and even show how it can bring more profit during the sales season for the decision maker.
    Table of Content 中文摘要i
    Abstractii
    Contentiii
    List of figuresv
    List of tablesvi
    1. Introduction1
    1.1 Background and Motivation1
    1.2 Research Objective2
    1.3 Research Framework2
    2. Literature Review4
    2.1 Seasonal Products4
    2.2 Bayesian Method5
    3. The Model8
    3.1 Scenario Setting8
    3.2 Demand function and Notations8
    3.3 The updating model10
    3.4 The retailer’s expected profit model13
    4. Numerical Study15
    4.1 Data Setting15
    4.2 Numerical Analysis16
    4.3 Sensitivity Analysis19
    5. Summary and Future Research23
    5.1 Summary23
    5.2 Future Research24
    Reference25
    Appendix27
    A1. With ordering quantity 27
    A2. With ordering quantity 28
    Reference 1. Azoury, K.S. (1985). “Bayes solution to dynamic inventory models under unknown demand distribution,” Management Science, Vol. 31, No. 9, 1150-1160.
    2. Arrow, K.J. (1962). “The economic implications of learning by doing,” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3, 155-173.
    3. Aviv, Y. and A. Pazgal (2005). “Optimal pricing of seasonal products in the presence of forward-looking consumers,” Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Vol. 10, No. 3, 339-359.
    4. Bitran, G.R. and H.K. Wadhwa (1996). “A methodology for demand learning with an application to the optimal pricing of seasonal products,” Working Paper, MIT Sloan School of Management, 3896-3898.
    5. Bitran, G.R. and H.K. Wadhwa (1996). “Some structural properties of the seasonal product pricing problem,” Working Paper, MIT Sloan School of Management, 3896-3897.
    6. Bitran, G.R. and S.V. Mondschein (1997). “Pricing perishable products: an application to the retail industry,” Working Paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 3592-3593.
    7. Bitran, G.R. and S.V. Mondschein (1997). “Periodic pricing of seasonal products in retailing,” Management Science, Vol. 43, No. 1, 64-79.
    8. Chen, J. (2001). “Coordination of the supply chain of seasonal products,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Vol. 31, No. 6, 524-532.
    9. Chun, Y.H. (2003). “Optimal pricing and ordering policies for perishable commodities,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 144, No. 1, 68-82.
    10. Chatwin, R.E. (2000). “Optimal dynamic pricing of perishable products with stochastic demand and a finite set of prices,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 125,
    149-174.
    11. Fisher, M. and A. Raman (1994). “Making supply meet demand in an uncertainty world,” Harvard Business Rev., Vol. 72, 83–93.
    12. Grossman, S.J., R. Kihlstrom and L.J. Mirman (1997). “A Bayesian approach to the production of information and learning by doing,” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 44, No. 3, 533-547.
    13. Kihlstrom, R. (1974). “A Bayesian model of demand for information about product Quality,” International Economic Review, Vol. 15, No. 1, 99-118.
    14. Khouja, M. (1999). “The single-period news-vendor problem: literature review and suggestions for future research,” Omega, Int. J. Mgmt. Sci., Vol. 27, 537-553.
    15. Monroe, K.B. (1990). Pricing: making profitable decisions, McGraw-Hill, New York.
    16. Park, S., D.L. Ensign and V.S. Pande (2006). “Bayesian update method for adaptive weighted sampling,” Physical Review, Vol. 74, 1-12.
    17. Petruzzi, N.C. and M. Dada (1999). “Pricing and the newsvendor problem: a review with extensions,” Operations Research, Vol. 47, No. 2, 183-194.
    18. Scarf, H. (1959). “Bayes solutions of the statistical inventory problem,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 30, 490-508.
    Advisor
  • Yingchieh Yeh(葉英傑)
  • Files
  • 974206025.pdf
  • approve immediately
    Date of Submission 2010-06-28

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