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Student Number 956201016
Author Cheng-tao Yang(楊承道)
Author's Email Address xyz3_jack@yahoo.com.tw
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 2045 times. Download 706 times.
Department Graduate Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Year 2007
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title Tropical cyclone changes in the Western North Pacific under climate change simulations
Date of Defense 2008-06-27
Page Count 98
Keyword
  • climate change
  • tropical cyclone
  • Abstract This study uses the Max Plank Institute (MPI) coupled model (ECHAM4/OPYC3) to simulated the IPCC A2 and B2 global warming scenarios. We discuss the total number, lifetime, intensity, track variation of tropical cyclones under different climate scenarios in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
     According to the results, we find that when greenhouse gases increase, there are several changes occured in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. (1) Sea surface temperatures increase. (2) Subtropical high ridge extends westward. (3) Relative humidities of lower and middle troposphere increase. (4) Temperatures increase in troposphere. (5) Walker circulation weakens. (6) Monsoon trough weakens in the South China Sea and Philippines region, and vertical wind shear weakens over the South China Sea. In addition, comparing the difference between A2 and B2 scenarios, we find that the changes of climate trend in B2 are almost the same as A2, but the amplitude in A2 is larger.
     Furthermore, we find that the total number of tropical cyclones decrease in the Western North Pacific under the A2 and B2 simulations. This reduction is associated with the increase of sea surface and air temperatures. The weakening of Walker circulation will increase water vapor in atmosphere. These processes will make atmosphere warmer and more moisture. This in turn increases the static stability of the troposphere. The process restrict the convection activity and hence reduce the total number of tropical cyclones.
     In addition, the northeastern recurving tracks of tropical cyclones shift southwesterly. This attributes to westward extend of the subtropical high ridge and weakening of westerly steering flow in middle latitude.
     Finally, the lifetime and intensity variation of tropical cyclones under the A2 and B2 climate change simulations may be affected by the differences in method, model and atmosphere interannual variability. In these part of tropical cyclone characters, we still need further study to prove.
    Table of Content 中文摘要.........................i
    英文摘要 ........................ii
    致謝   ........................iv
    目錄   ........................v
    表目錄  .......................vii
    圖目錄  ...................... viii
    第一章  緒論 ................... 1
      1.1前言與回顧................... 1
      1.2研究動機與目的................. 3
      1.3論文結構.................... 4
    第二章 資料來源與研究方法.............. 5
      2.1  資料來源.................... 5
      2.2模式簡介.................... 6
      2.3  如何追蹤氣旋—Track模式的原理與使用.......7
      2.4  如何定義模式中的熱帶氣旋............ 9
    第三章  模式的特性.................11
      3.1海溫......................11
      3.2海平面氣壓...................12
      3.3相對溼度....................13
      3.4降水......................13
      3.5模式特性對熱帶氣旋路徑模擬的影響........14
    第四章  A2、B2氣候變遷情境下大尺度氣候場的變化...16
      4.1  海溫......................16
      4.2  海平面氣壓...................17
      4.3  相對溼度....................19
      4.4 對流層溫度................... 21
    第五章  氣候變遷下熱帶氣旋特性的變化以及變化原因... 24
      5.1 熱帶氣旋數目的變化............... 24
      5.2 熱帶氣旋生命期的變化.............. 30
      5.3 熱帶氣旋強度的變化............... 31
      5.4 熱帶氣旋路徑的變化............... 33
    第六章  結論與未來展望................ 35
    參考文獻........................ 39
    附錄A..........................47
    附錄B..........................51
    附錄C..........................52
    附表圖......................... 53
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    Advisor
  • Ren-yow Tzeng(曾仁佑)
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    Date of Submission 2008-07-24

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