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Student Number 93433014
Author Pao-Chien Kuo(郭寶謙)
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 2871 times. Download 11 times.
Department Executive Master of Information Management
Year 2005
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title The Analysis of DRAM Monthly Price Trend
Date of Defense 2006-07-04
Page Count 71
Keyword
  • contract price
  • DDR
  • DDR2
  • demand
  • DRAM
  • SDRAM
  • Spot price
  • sufficiency stepwise multiple regression analysi
  • supply
  • Abstract DRAM plays a central role in the electronics industry due to its wide spread applications in various products like PC, mobile phone, optical disk drive, digital camera, printer, digital TV, etc. For the past two decades, prices of IC chips are subjected to the inevitable descending trend following the principle of Moore’s Law. However, DRAM differs from general ICs with its severe short-term price volatility due to various reasons. As a result, predicting the price of DRAM chips becomes an important problem in the industry.
    This study attempts to statistically explain the variability of the DRAM prices through a series of stepwise multiple regression analysis. Multiple data items were collected on a monthly basis. These primarily include DRAM prices (both spot and contract), supply and demand volumes. To make a better prediction, analysis are conducted for various types of DRAM, namely DDR, DDRII and SDRAM. Global DRAM supply/demand were taken into account to quantify the underlying forces behind the price fluctuations.
    Our study shows a close tie between DRAM price fluctuation with sufficiency, which is defined as the difference between supply and demand, which is reflected in the market as glut or shortage. This association is especially obvious in the cases of DDR and DDR2, which are highly reliance on the PC industry. In addition, results also reveals that the monthly changes in DRAM price is also highly related to the sufficiency construct.
    Keywords: DRAM, DDR, DDR2, SDRAM, Spot price, contract price, supply, demand, sufficiency stepwise multiple regression analysis
    Table of Content 目錄
    圖目錄V
    表目錄VI
    第一章 緒論1
    第一節 研究背景1
    第二節 研究動機與目的1
    第三節 研究流程2
    第二章 文獻探討4
    第一節 摩爾定律與半導體矽週期理論4
    第二節 價格彈性與蛛網理論6
    第三節 Π RULE與BI RULE9
    第四節 價格、供給量與需求量的定義10
    第三章  DRAM產業描述13
    第一節 全球DRAM市場之發展現況13
    第二節 DRAM之市場應用情形14
    第三節 DRAM市場之特色16
    第四章  研究方法18
    第一節 研究設計18
    第二節 研究資料蒐集22
    第三節 研究範圍22
    第四節 研究架構24
    第五章 DRAM價格變動分析25
    第一節 資料樣本特性描述與分析25
    第二節 各因素對價格影響的分析26
    第三節 顯著因子對DRAM價格的逐步回歸分析34
    第四節 其他因素探討55
    第六章 結論與建議57
    第一節 結論57
    第二節 建議61
    第三節 後續研究方向62
    參考文獻63
    Reference 英文部份
    1.Gartner Dataquest (2005), “DRAM Unit Shipment — Market Statistics.”
    2.IDC (2006), “Worldwide PC Forecast Update.”
    3.InSpectrum (2006), “DRAM Data Book.”
    4.Lepselter, M.P., and Sze, S.M. “DRAM Pricing Trends --The π Rule,” IEEE Circuits and Devices Magazine, Vol.1, Jan 1985, pp.53-54.
    5.Tarui, Y. and Tarui, T. “New DRAM Pricing Trends--The Bi Rule,” IEEE Circuits and Devices Magazine, Vol.7, Mar 1991, pp.44-45.
    6.WSTS (2006), “Blue Book.”
    中文部分
    1.吳福立(2000),DRAM價格變動模式之探討,國立交通大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
    2.張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏(1987),經濟學:理論與實際,台北:翰蘆圖書出版有限公司。
    3.張家富(2001),DRAM價格模式研究,國立台北大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    4.許俊賢(2002),DRAM價格與DRAM個股股價關係之研究,國立台北大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    5.葉麗貴(2002),DRAM季價格預測,國立交通大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
    6.楊世瑩(2005),SPSS統計分析實務,台北:旗標出版股份有限公司。
    7.蔡元哲(2003),動態DRAM價格之模擬分析---從DRAM產業及PC產業之研究,國立台灣大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
    8.劉政欣(2000),「DRAM產業發展趨勢分析」,工業技術研究院-經濟部科技專案結果。
    網路部分
    1.http://www.micron.com/ <Accessed Apr 17,2006>
    2.http://www.samsung.com/ <Accessed Apr 17,2006>
    3.http://www.hynix.com/  <Accessed Apr17,2006>
    4.http://www.elpida.com/  <Accessed Apr17,2006>
    Advisor
  • Cheng-Kiang Farn(范錚強)
  • Files
  • 93433014.pdf
  • disapprove authorization
    Date of Submission 2006-07-17

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