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Student Number 91433001
Author Danny Ke(柯富聰)
Author's Email Address dke@ms18.hinet.net
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 3293 times. Download 2338 times.
Department Executive Master of Information Management
Year 2003
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title Business Strategies and Managerial Measures during the Telecom Bubble
Date of Defense 2004-06-25
Page Count 101
Keyword
  • business strategy
  • telecom bubble
  • telecom equipment supplier
  • telecom operator
  • telecommunication industry
  • Abstract Since 1997, Internet traffic had roughly doubled every year. But much of the industry was betting on it doubling every 100 days. The mythical growth rate was then expected to apply to all forms of telecom traffic. The stock prices of telecom firms soared up in 2000, and M&A activities pervaded the whole industry worldwide. However, since the second half of 2000, the Internet bubble crashed and the global economy also came into slowdown, then the great telecom crash happened. The telecom bust is some ten times bigger than the better-known dotcom crash. The rise and fall of telecoms may indeed qualify as the largest bubble in history. Telecom firms have run up total debts of around $1 trillion.
    In this thesis research, several telecom equipment suppliers and operators were picked up for analysis. From the views of technology innovation, market requirement, speculations, telecom firms’ business strategies and managerial measures, many of the related industry reports, market research reports, business news and company announcements were collected and analyzed to find out the root causes for this telecom bubble.
    Table of Content 目錄I
    圖目錄III
    表目錄IV
    第1章緒論1
    1.1研究背景1
    1.2研究動機2
    1.3研究目的3
    1.4預期貢獻3
    1.5研究流程5
    1.6論文架構5
    第2章文獻探討7
    2.1電信產業發展源起7
    2.1.1電話的發明7
    2.1.2美國電報電話公司 (AT&T)8
    2.1.3北電網絡 (Nortel Networks)9
    2.2電信業的創新技術10
    2.2.1數位交換機 (Circuit Switching)10
    2.2.2數據交換機 (Packet Switching)12
    2.2.3無線通訊系統16
    2.2.4光纖傳輸系統21
    2.3電信業投資狂潮 ( 1997 ~ 2000 )23
    2.4電信業大崩盤 ( 2001 ~ 2002 )25
    2.4.1「經濟學人」專題報導 -- The Great Telecoms Crash25
    2.4.2美國 -- 世界通訊破產重整、奎斯特通訊假帳醜聞25
    2.4.3歐洲 -- 德意志電信、法國電信巨額虧損27
    2.4.4電信設備供應商 -- 北電網絡、朗訊、阿爾卡特大幅虧損29
    2.5全球經濟史上重大的投資泡沫事件30
    2.5.11630年代荷蘭的鬱金香球莖炒作風潮30
    2.5.21840年代的鐵路公司風潮31
    2.5.31980年代末期的日本不動產狂飆32
    2.6高科技產業的創新與行銷管理模式35
    2.6.1維持性(sustaining)創新 vs. 破壞性(disruptive)創新35
    2.6.2技術採用生命週期40
    第3章研究架構與研究方法42
    3.1研究架構42
    3.2研究方法45
    第4章資料分析46
    4.1電信設備供應商 (Equipment Supplier)53
    4.1.1阿爾卡特 (Alcatel)53
    4.1.2北電網絡 (Nortel Networks)57
    4.1.3朗訊科技 (Lucent Technologies)61
    4.1.4康寧公司 (Corning Incorporated)65
    4.1.5美商光炬 (JDSU)68
    4.2電信服務商 (Telecom Operator)72
    4.2.1世界通訊 (WorldCom)72
    4.2.2美國電報電話公司 (AT&T)77
    4.2.3英國電信 (British Telecom)81
    4.3電信公司所面臨的問題與管理應變85
    第5章結論與建議90
    5.1研究結論90
    5.1.1產業風暴前的營運策略90
    5.1.2產業風暴後的管理應變91
    5.1.3歷史的教訓92
    5.2研究限制93
    5.3後續的研究建議94
    參考文獻95
    附錄研究後之補充101
    圖目錄
    圖1-1:研究流程5
    圖2-1:X.25與Frame Relay網路通訊協定示意圖14
    圖2-2:GSM網路示意圖18
    圖2-3:IMT-2000空中介面與核心網路標準20
    圖2-4:破壞性創新模型的三度空間圖36
    圖2-5:以採用的相對時間為基礎的採用者分類40
    圖2-6:技術採用生命週期41
    圖3-1:研究架構44
    圖4-1:Alcatel股價走勢圖(Paris)56
    圖4-2:Alcatel股價走勢圖(NYSE)56
    圖4-3:Nortel股價走勢圖(NYSE)60
    圖4-4:Lucent股價走勢圖(NYSE)64
    圖4-5:Corning股價走勢圖(NYSE)67
    圖4-6:JDSU每季營收統計69
    圖4-7:JDSU股價走勢圖(Nasdaq)71
    圖4-8:AT&T股價走勢圖(NYSE)80
    圖4-9:BT Group股價走勢圖(London)84
    表目錄
    表2-1:CENTREX與PBX比較表11
    表4-1:Alcatel營業額(1999-2002)55
    表4-2:Nortel營業額(1999-2002)60
    表4-3:Lucent營業額(1999-2002)64
    表4-4:Corning營業額(1999-2002)67
    表4-5:JDSU營業額(1999-2002)71
    表4-6:WorldCom營業額(1999-2002)76
    表4-7:AT&T營業額(1999-2002)80
    表4-8:BT Group營業額(1999-2002)84
    表4-9:2001-2003相關電信設備供應商之累計裁減員工人數87
    表4-10:2002-2004相關電信服務商之累計裁減員工人數89
    表5-1:電信設備供應商與服務商在產業風暴後之管理應變比較表91
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    《英文部份》
    1. Afuah, Allan (2003) Internet Business Models and Strategies (2nd Edition), McGraw-Hill.
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    11. Heinzl, Mark (2002) “Nortel Suffers From Larger Telecom Woes,” Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition), New York, N.Y.: Apr 18, 2002, p. 5.
    12. January, Brendan (2002) “Lucent Spinoff Agere Systems Will Cut 4,000 Jobs, Close Plants,” Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, Washington: Aug 15, 2002, p. 1.
    13. Joseph, Mike (2003) “Centre County, Pa., Job Services Rush to Organize Help for Corning Workers,” Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, Washington: Apr 17, 2003, p. 1.
    14. Kapner, Suzanne (2002) “World Business Briefing Europe: Britain: Job Cuts At BT,” New York Times (Late Edition (East Coast)), New York, N.Y.: Mar 28, 2002, p. W.1.
    15. Knight Ridder Tribune Business News (2003) “JDS Uniphase Lays Off 10 Percent of Work Force at Rochester, Minn., Plant,” Washington: May 16, 2003, p. 1.
    16. McBride, Yolanda E. and Pamela Tate. Solomon (2003) “AT&T to Cut Work Force by 3,500 --- Business Services to Get Lion's Share of Job Losses; Latin Charge Is Planned,” Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition), New York, N.Y.: Jan 7, 2003, p. B.7.
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    《網站》
    1. Alcatel,http://www.alcatel.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reports & business highlights.
    2. British Telecom,http://www.bt.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reviews.
    3. Corning,http://www.corning.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reports.
    4. Economist,http://www.economist.com/,telecom related reports.
    5. Euroland,http://www.euroland.com/,stock price charts.
    6. Google,http://www.google.com.tw/,business news searching.
    7. JDSU,http://www.jdsu.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reports.
    8. Lucent,http://www.lucent.com/,1998 ~ 2002 financial highlights.
    9. Nasdaq,http://www.nasdaq.com/,stock price charts.
    10. Nortel,http://www.nortelnetworks.com/,1998 ~ 2002 financial reviews.
    11. ProQuest,http://proquest.umi.com/,business news searching.
    12. Yahoo,http://tw.yahoo.com/,business news searching.
    13. 工研院,http://www.itri.org.tw/,industry research reports.
    14. 中華電信,http://www.cht.com.tw/,technology explanations.
    15. 中華電信企業電子商務網站,http://www.hib2b.com.tw,technology explanations.
    16. 文艷,http://china.sina.com.tw/tech/it/t/2003-03-18/0808172178.shtml,全球電信巨頭喊虧 惟英國電信成行業獨秀。
    Advisor
  • Jim Lin(林子銘)
  • Files
  • 91433001.pdf
  • approve immediately
    Date of Submission 2004-07-03

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