Title page for 89322001


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Student Number 89322001
Author Yu-lung peng(彭育隆)
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 1923 times. Download 1419 times.
Department Civil Engineering
Year 2001
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document Master's Thesis
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title A bayesian analysis method for updating fragility curve
Date of Defense 2002-06-29
Page Count 102
Keyword
  • Bayesian analysis
  • fragility curve
  • Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to build up an engineering risk model of earthquake loss estimation and its application to estimate the direct bridge loss. This estimation methodology integrated the seismic hazard analysis and fragility analysis. A Bayesian analysis method for updating earthquake ground motion versus damage relationship in the form of fragility curve is proposed. As bridge damage data from past earthquake gradually become available. And the simplified analytical method is also developed to obtain fragility functions of classical bridges.
    Experience from the experts on bridge damage is used with the damage relation developed through simplified analytical method to estimate the prior distribution. The Bayesian updates scheme is then adopted to obtain the posterior distribution of the fragility curves.
    Table of Content 目錄
    第一章緒論
    1-1研究動機與目的-------------------------------------1
    1-2文獻回顧-------------------------------------------3
    1-3研究內容-------------------------------------------5
    第二章地震危害評估
    2-1地震危害度定義-------------------------------------7
    2-2地震危害度分析方法簡介------------------------------7
    2-3評估模式--------------------------------------------8
    2-3.l決定有效震源(Effective Sources)-------------------8
    2-3.2地震在發生關係式----------------------------------9
    2-3.3地震發生模式(Earthquake Recurrence Model)---------9
    2-3.4地表運動衰減模式----------------------------------11
    2-3.5繪製工址處PGA超越或然率曲線----------------------12
    2-3.6計算工址的隨機反應譜------------------------------13
    2-4橋梁損害評估----------------------------------------14
    2-4.1橋梁損害分析方法----------------------------------14
    第三章橋梁易損性評估之建立
    3-1橋梁分類法-----------------------------------------17
    3-1.1台灣地區橋梁分類表-------------------------------21
    3-2橋梁易損性曲線(Fragility Curve )-------------------22
    3-3 ATC-13概述----------------------------------------24
    3-3.1直接損害之觀念-----------------------------------27
    3-3.2問卷形式-----------------------------------------29
    3.4利用簡化理論方法(HAZUS)--------------------------30
    3-4.1橋梁損害情況之定義-------------------------------30
    3-4.2簡化理論方法-------------------------------------33
    3-4.3土壤修正係數-------------------------------------39
    3-4.4連續性之弱支承強橋墩-----------------------------43
    3-4.5 標準橋梁之各損害PGA值---------------------------43
    3-4.6貝氏定理的應用-----------------------------------47
    第四章 貝氏理論
    4-1貝氏理論-------------------------------------------49
    4-2更新流程-------------------------------------------51
    4-3同步修正-------------------------------------------53
    4-4橋梁損害機率-------------------------------------55
    4-5 實例分析------------------------------------------57
    第五章 結論------------------------------------------71
    附錄A-------------------------------------------------76
    附錄B-------------------------------------------------79
    附錄C--------------------------------------------------96
    Reference 參考文獻
    1.Gutenberg,B.,and Richter,C.F, “Frequency of Earthquake in California”,B.S.S.A, vol.34,pp.185-188,1994
    2.Cornell,C.A.,”Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis”, B.S.S.A,pp.1538-1606,1986
    3.Chiang,W.L.,Guidi,G.,A.,Mortgat,C.P.,Schoof.C.C.,Shah,H.C.,”Computer Program For Seismic Hazard Analysis -A User Menua”,The John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Stanford University,1984.
    4.ATC-13, Earthquke Damage Evaluation Data for California. Report ATC-13, Applied Technology Council,Redwood City, California,1985
    5.Mander, J. B., and Cheng C.-T. “Seismic Resistance of Bridge Piers Based on Damage Avoidance Design.” Nation Center for Earthquake Engineering Research Technical Report NCEER 97-0014,1997
    6.Cheng, C.-T., and Mander, J. B., “Seismic Design of Bridge Columns Based on Control and Reparability of Damage. “National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research Technical Report.NCEER 97-0013,1997
    7.Dutta, A., and Mander, J.B., “Seismic Fragility Analysis of Highway Bridges”, INCEDEMCEER Center-to-Center Workshop on Earthquake Engineering Fronties in Transportation Systems,June 1998,Tokyo,Japan,1998
    8.Mander, J. B.”Fragility Curve Development for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Bridges” State University of New York at Buffalo,Buffalo,NY,1999
    9.Basoz,N.,Mander,J.,Enhancement of the Highway Transportation Lifeline Module in HAZUS,1999.
    10.蔣偉寧,” 應用貝氏定理修正橋梁之易損性曲線研究” 國立中央大學土木系,2000。
    11.蔡朝榮,”台灣地區地震荷載於反應譜建立之研究”,國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文,1989
    12.HAZUS.Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology. Technical Manual.Prepared by the National Institute of Building Sciences for Federal Emergency Management Agency,1997
    13.陳志明,”台灣區公路橋梁耐震補強優選評估模式之研究” 國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文,1998。
    14.李景亮 梁英文 ,”結構耐震設計”,文笙書局,台北,民國89年9月。
    15.國立中央大學土木工程學系橋梁工程研究中心、昭凌工程顧問股份有限公司、中興工程顧問股份有限公司、林同棪工程顧問股份有限公司、亞新工程顧問股份有限公司,”台灣地區橋梁管理系統橋梁基本資料建立說明手冊” 民國89年7月。
    16.Alfredo H-S. Ang, and Wilson H. Tang,”Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design” 虹橋書局。
    17.許文科,整合性多目標地震風險評估系統之建立,國立中央大學土木工程研究所博士論文,1999
    Advisor
  • Wei-Ling Chiang(蔣偉寧)
  • Wen-Ko Hsu(許文科)
  • Files
  • 89322001.pdf
  • approve immediately
    Date of Submission 2002-07-08

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